We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.
What determines fuel prices?
Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.
Fuel prices this week:
Fuel Market Update – What’s Happening at the Pump?
Fuel prices dipped early in the week due to easing tensions in the Middle East, but rising global risks and market uncertainty mean that prices may change. Here is a summary of what’s been going on this week, as well as the impact for drivers.
Ceasefire calms supply jitters (temporarily)
Oil prices dropped at the start of the week as tensions between Iran and Israel eased with a temporary ceasefire. This reduced fears of a major supply disruption in the Middle East – one of the world’s key oil-producing regions. Lower geopolitical risk often means lower wholesale prices, which can translate to cheaper fuel.
Shockwaves from Pax liquidation
Markets were caught off guard when Prax, the company that owns the Lindsey refinery in Lincolnshire, went into liquidation. Prax also owns a North Sea oil field and a wide network of UK petrol stations. The uncertainty surrounding future fuel supply from these operations has traders nervous – and nervous markets usually lead to higher prices.
Rising Middle East tensions and nuclear concerns
The situation turned again when Iran stopped cooperation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog following strikes by the U.S. and Israel. This raises new fears about regional instability and global energy supply. That kind of risk drives up oil prices globally, which could hit UK pumps.
New US Policies
A new U.S. tax bill passed on Thursday locks in previous tax cuts and expands oil and gas lease sales across the country. While this could increase future oil production, markets often respond more to short-term uncertainty than long-term gains, so prices are still uncertain.
Supply and demand
Mixed supply signals from U.S. markets
Confusing inventory data in the U.S. is adding to the uncertainty. If traders can’t clearly tell how much oil is in storage, they can’t predict future supply accurately, so they price in the risk, pushing costs higher. Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell blamed past tariffs for holding back interest rate cuts, which adds another layer of economic unpredictability.
Russian refinery maintenance
Russian refineries are undergoing maintenance, tightening global fuel supply. Even though their products don’t go to Europe directly, less output globally still means more competition for supply, pushing prices up everywhere, including the UK.
OPEC’s Big Decision
Looking ahead, all eyes are on OPEC’s meeting on 6th July. If they agree to increase production in August, it could help stabilise markets and ease upward pressure on prices.
Looking Ahead – oil and fuel prices next week
We predict the market will trade higher going into next week. Fuel prices at the pump often follow wholesale oil prices. As markets react to geopolitical tensions, refinery disruptions, and policy shifts, the cost of petrol and diesel fluctuates. While prices dropped earlier this week, rising global uncertainty suggests they may rise again soon.
General factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:
- While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices.
- Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand.
- Seasonal factors like winter heating and summer cooling demand can also increase oil consumption and pricing.
Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management.
The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.