Fuel Price Pulse – 4th July

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We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

 

Fuel Market Update – What’s Happening at the Pump?

Fuel prices dipped early in the week due to easing tensions in the Middle East, but rising global risks and market uncertainty mean that prices may change. Here is a summary of what’s been going on this week, as well as the impact for drivers. 

 

Ceasefire calms supply jitters (temporarily)

Oil prices dropped at the start of the week as tensions between Iran and Israel eased with a temporary ceasefire. This reduced fears of a major supply disruption in the Middle East – one of the world’s key oil-producing regions. Lower geopolitical risk often means lower wholesale prices, which can translate to cheaper fuel. 

 

Shockwaves from Pax liquidation

Markets were caught off guard when Prax, the company that owns the Lindsey refinery in Lincolnshire, went into liquidation. Prax also owns a North Sea oil field and a wide network of UK petrol stations. The uncertainty surrounding future fuel supply from these operations has traders nervous – and nervous markets usually lead to higher prices.

 

Rising Middle East tensions and nuclear concerns

The situation turned again when Iran stopped cooperation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog following strikes by the U.S. and Israel. This raises new fears about regional instability and global energy supply. That kind of risk drives up oil prices globally, which could hit UK pumps.

 

New US Policies

A new U.S. tax bill passed on Thursday locks in previous tax cuts and expands oil and gas lease sales across the country. While this could increase future oil production, markets often respond more to short-term uncertainty than long-term gains, so prices are still uncertain. 

 

Supply and demand 

Mixed supply signals from U.S. markets

Confusing inventory data in the U.S. is adding to the uncertainty. If traders can’t clearly tell how much oil is in storage, they can’t predict future supply accurately, so they price in the risk, pushing costs higher. Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell blamed past tariffs for holding back interest rate cuts, which adds another layer of economic unpredictability.

Russian refinery maintenance 

Russian refineries are undergoing maintenance, tightening global fuel supply. Even though their products don’t go to Europe directly, less output globally still means more competition for supply, pushing prices up everywhere, including the UK.

OPEC’s Big Decision

Looking ahead, all eyes are on OPEC’s meeting on 6th July. If they agree to increase production in August, it could help stabilise markets and ease upward pressure on prices. 

 

Looking Ahead – oil and fuel prices next week

We predict the market will trade higher going into next week. Fuel prices at the pump often follow wholesale oil prices. As markets react to geopolitical tensions, refinery disruptions, and policy shifts, the cost of petrol and diesel fluctuates. While prices dropped earlier this week, rising global uncertainty suggests they may rise again soon.

 

General factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating and summer cooling demand can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 27th June

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We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

 

Fuel Market Update – What’s Happening at the Pump?

Despite high expectations that oil prices would rise dramatically this week, they actually saw the steepest drop since March 2023. 

 

Middle East tensions 

Despite the U.S. bombing Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes on U.S. bases in Doha, the market reacted with caution rather than panic. Oil prices remained mixed at the start of the week but ultimately trended lower as concerns about escalation subsided. 

The Strait of Hormuz

One key concern was Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for about 20% of global oil shipments. However, the waterway remains open, and President Trump’s outreach to China for diplomatic support may have helped to stablise the situation. China is heavily reliant on oil that moves through the Strait, and has actually increased its imports from Iran to record highs during June. The continued flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz means that there is no significant disruption affecting global supply, which helps keep oil and fuel prices from rising.

Ceasefire sees risk of oil supply disruption drop

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel, although briefly broken, has held for several days. U.S. mediation helped bring both sides back to the negotiating table, and analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that the current risk of oil supply disruption in the region has dropped to just 4%. 

 

Oil supply and demand

On the supply side, U.S. oil inventories showed strong draws. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day at its upcoming July 6 meeting, further easing supply concerns. If supply rises faster than demand, oil becomes less scarce, and prices — including fuel prices — tend to fall. The current situation suggests that increased supply is offsetting demand pressure, which is why fuel prices are likely to stay low or even drop further.

Looking Ahead – oil prices next week

We expect oil prices to remain lower going into next week, provided current trends continue, with no significant new threats and steady supply.

Unless global demand spikes or supply unexpectedly tightens, prices at the pump are not expected to rise.

 

General factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating and summer cooling demand can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 20th June

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Fuel Market Update – What’s Happening at the Pump?

Crude oil prices went up for the third week in a row, mainly due to growing conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices hit a peak on June 19 before dipping slightly. These rising oil prices can eventually trickle down to higher fuel prices at the pump, especially if the trend continues.

Oil prices climb as Middle East tensions rise

Tensions between Israel and Iran flared up after Israeli airstrikes on June 13, leading to missile exchanges between the two countries. Several of these attacks targeted energy sites, raising fears about potential damage to oil facilities. While no major supply disruptions have happened yet, there’s concern about the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow waterway that handles about one-third of all oil shipped by sea. If anything were to block or slow traffic through that area, it could quickly lead to supply issues, which would drive up fuel prices around the world. 

President Trump has called for Iran’s unconditional surrender and says the U.S. may join the strikes. The White House has given itself two weeks to make that decision, depending on whether peace talks go anywhere. Meanwhile, leaders in the UK and EU are urging all sides to find a diplomatic solution. If the situation worsens, oil prices – and fuel prices – could rise even more. Any progress toward peace might help ease prices.

Supply remains stable – for now

Despite all this, groups like the International Energy Agency and OPEC say there’s no immediate oil shortage. In fact, global supply is still solid. But the fear of possible disruptions, especially at the Strait of Hormuz. is enough to keep prices on edge. Even if there’s plenty of oil available, fear and uncertainty can still push prices higher – something drivers might start noticing at the pump in the coming weeks.

 

Looking Ahead – oil prices next week

Looking ahead, we expect oil prices to keep climbing in the short term. The outlook remains unpredictable. A serious escalation in the Middle East could mean more expensive fuel, while a quick diplomatic breakthrough could bring some relief. Either way, the situation is one to watch if you’re keeping an eye on fuel prices.

 

General factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating and summer cooling demand can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 13th June

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Fuel Market Update – What’s Happening at the Pump?

Oil prices increased this week due to geopolitical risks, disrupted production, and shifting global supply dynamics. These developments have a direct impact on fuel prices at the pump, as crude oil is the largest cost component in gasoline and diesel pricing.

 

Middle East escalation

Israel launched airstrikes on Iran today (Friday 13th), targeting nuclear sites and missile factories, and killing key military leaders. Although energy infrastructure was not hit, Iran has vowed to retaliate, raising fears of escalation. This could affect the Strait of Hormuz—a vital shipping route which is used to transport nearly 25% of the world’s oil. Any threat or closure here would restrict global supply, lead to higher costs for refiners and increase fuel prices for consumers. 

 

Oil supply concerns

Canadian wildfires

Ongoing wildfires in Alberta, a major oil-producing region, have continued to disrupt oil production. This has resulted in fears of short-term supply shortages, especially for North American refiners. When the supply is constrained, the cost of oil increases. This often results in an increase in pressure on fuel prices at the pump.

OPEC+ and strategic reserves

OPEC+ is gradually easing its cuts, adding back nearly half a million barrels per day each month, with similar increases earmarked for July. However, with some uncertainty around supply contains and geopolitical risks, the IE announced that it may release up to 1.2 billion barrels from strategic reserves. This has been criticised by OPEC, which warned the move could create unnecessary panic. If producers and governments send mixed signals, market volatility may rise. Uncertainty often leads to speculative price increases, which are passed on to consumers via higher fuel prices.

 

Trade Talks and Tensions 

Investor sentiment improved as US-China trade negotiations made progress. Both countries agreed on a framework to resume cooperation and reduce export restrictions on rare earth elements. This has boosted global economic confidence. A stronger global economy generally increases energy demand. As demand rises faster than supply, crude oil prices – and consequently fuel prices – can increase.

 

Looking Ahead – oil prices next week

Despite OPEC’s assurances of sufficient supply, geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions are driving uncertainty. If conflict escalates or Iranian energy infrastructure is targeted, oil prices could rise further. We expect oil to trade sharply higher next week, which could translate into higher fuel costs at the pump globally.

 

General factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating and summer cooling demand can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 6th June

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Fuel Market Update – What’s Happening at the Pump?

Oil prices have risen slightly compared to last week, due to renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade talks, supply concerns from Canadian wildfires, and expectations of potential interest rate cuts in the U.S.

Supply concerns

Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, disrupted nearly 10% of the country’s oil exports, creating a short-term supply shock that pushed prices upwards. At the same time, OPEC+ announced plans to increase output for the third consecutive month, with more hikes likely in August and September. 

Short-term supply tightening (Canada) vs. longer-term supply expansion (OPEC+) creates a delicate balance between supply and demand, temporarily easing oversupply concerns. However, speculation about OPEC+ August/September increases the risk of oversupply in the second half of the year, which could impact prices later.

Socio-economic factors

The U.S. services sector contracted in May for the first time in almost a year, while US unemployment claims increased for the second consecutive week, indicating a weakening labour market. There is hope that the U.S. Federal Reserve might cut interest rates to stimulate growth, boosting oil demand by making borrowing cheaper.

The overall health of the economy can be an indicator of future energy demand. A contracting services sector and rising unemployment suggest slower economic growth and weaker consumer spending, typically leading to lower oil and fuel demand. However, rate cuts could reduce borrowing costs, boosting economic activity and increasing oil demand.

Trade and political tensions

Reports of Trump and Xi Jinping’s positive phone call was seen as sign of easing U.S.-China trade tensions – good news for global trade and economic growth. This improved investor confidence, along with reduced fears of a major trade war that could hurt oil and other commodities demand. Meanwhile, Canada is negotiating with the U.S. to have tariffs lifted, which could help stabilise trade flows and energy exports.

Russia carried out extensive drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s capital and several other regions early Friday, resulting in at least three deaths and injuring 49 others, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. As two major oil producers, these ongoing tensions raise concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies, increasing geopolitical risk and supporting higher oil prices.

Once political allies, Elon Musk and Donald Trump are now engaged in a public feud. Musk criticised Trump’s major spending bill and cuts to clean energy initiatives, prompting Trump to threaten to revoke subsidies for Musk’s companies. As a result, Tesla shares plummeted by around 15% in one day. Musk also supported Trump’s impeachment and cited his alleged ties to Jeffrey Epstein, further intensifying market reactions and political backlash. While the Musk-Trump feud doesn’t directly move oil prices, their clash over clean energy policy could influence long-term demand dynamics between renewables and fossil fuels.

 

Looking Ahead

On balance, we predict the market will trade slightly higher going into next week, but ongoing global conflicts could impact pricing in the coming weeks.

 

General factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating and summer cooling demand can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 30th May

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Fuel Market Update – What’s Happening at the Pump?

Oil prices fell slightly this week. Uncertainty around oversupply and lower demand can often lead to lower fuel prices for consumers at the pump. Prices this week have been driven by speculation over OPEC+’s next move, slow demand, and ongoing uncertainty around trade.

 

OPEC+ may increase oil production in July

With a meeting of eight key OPEC+ members due to take place on saturday, there is speculation that the group will raise output again during July. Together, OPEC+ controls over 40% of global oil supply and the group meet regularly to decide whether to increase or cut oil production. Their decisions can raise or lower oil prices globally, affecting fuel, transportation, and energy costs. If they increase their output – especially at a time of steady or weak demand – oil prices, and fuel orices at the pump, may fall. 

 

Global oil demand rose, but less than expected

Even though people are using more oil, the increase is around 250,000 bpd less than analysts had predicted. Weaker demand than expected can be a signal of slower economic activity or consumer spending. If supply keeps growing and demand doesn’t keep up, oil prices fall. 

 

Tariffs in the U.S. continue to cause uncertainty

The situation with US traffics continues to be a bit of a rollercoaster. Earlier this week, a trade court put a block on many of the duties – a decision overturned by the federal appeals court on Thursday. Analysts have said that the uncertainty will remain as the tariff battles are dealt with by the courts. Trade tensions (especially with China) can hurt global economic growth – a slower economy means people and businesses use less oil, and discourages investment and reduces demand, which can pull prices down further.

 

Geopolitical tensions 

President Trump is growing frustrated with both Ukraine and Russia, sparking fears he might abandon mediating peace talks. Trump called Putin’s actions irrational and inhumane, while Putin dismissed Trump as overly emotional. This could push prices up because markets will be cautious about the possibility of prolonged conflict, potential sanctions on Russian oil, or disruptions to supply routes. This uncertainty often leads traders to put prices up before any actual supply issues occur.

 

 

Looking Ahead

On balance, we predict the market will trade stably going into next week, but potential changes in supply (from OPEC and Iran) and ongoing global conflicts could impact pricing in the coming weeks.

 

General factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating and summer cooling demand can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 23rd May

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Fuel Market Update – What’s Happening at the Pump?

The oil and fuel markets are holding steady compared to last week, but several global factors are influencing what we might see next at the pump. 

OPEC supply discussions

OPEC is considering increasing oil output for June and July, after already supplying more oil than usual in May. No final decision has been made yet, but this – along with the prospect of also additional Iranian Oil entering the market – has added to oversupply concerns. Basic supply and demand means more supply can help lower prices at the pump. However, too much can cause market instability.

US-Iran nuclear talks

Negotiations between the US and Iran continue, with the possibility of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports. If Iranian oil re-enters global markets, it could ease supply pressures and help stabilise or even lower fuel prices. However, as noted above, there are ongoing concerns around oversupply. 

Trade deals and tarrifs

A new trade agreement between the EU and the UK – which the government claims will add nearly £9 billion to the UK economy by 2040 – has added some stability to global markets. Meanwhile,  Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a 50% tariff on all European Union (EU) imports, set to begin on June 1, 2025, has introduced uncertainty into global markets. Trade deals can reduce uncertainty and support steady economic activity, while sanction often unstelle things – both, in turn, affect energy demand and pricing.

Tensions in the Middle East

Ongoing conflict in Gaza and Israel’s recent military escalation have caused concern among international allies. Free trade talks have been suspended.
Instability in key oil-producing regions can cause supply fears, pushing prices higher due to perceived risks. Geopolitical conflict can disrupt oil production or transport routes, which often results in price spikes.

Looking Ahead

We expect fuel prices to remain relatively stable in the short term, but potential changes in supply (from OPEC and Iran) and ongoing global conflicts could impact pricing in the coming weeks.

 

General factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating and summer cooling demand can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 16th May

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Prices have risen this week. Factors influencing pricing include easing tensions between the US and China, US-Iran nuclear talks and OPEC+ supplies. 

 

US-China and the impact of the global economy   

Early this week, the United States and China announced a 90-day pause on tariffs. The ongoing threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies – and biggest oil consumers – has caused concerns of an trade war, which would have impacted the global economy and oil demand. This pause has temporarily relieved global markets, easing fears of an imminent economic slowdown, leading to a modest rebound in oil prices. However, uncertainty remains high, and any signs of renewed friction could quickly cause oil prices to fall again. 

 

How the US-Iran nuclear deal influences fuel prices  

Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran. If sanctions on Iran are lifted as part of a nuclear deal, Iran could boost its oil exports by around 400,000 barrels per day. This increase in global supply could impact the fuel price at the pumps – when supply increases and demand stays the same, oil prices tend to fall, and prices at the pump often follow. However, this could be offset by other factors.


 

OPEC+ production hikes impact prices on the forecourt 

This week, OPEC+ – which includes key oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – agreed to increase their collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June 2025. This decision marks the second consecutive month of such increases, following a similar rise in May. When OPEC+ increases oil production, it adds more oil to the global market. If demand remains stable, this additional supply can lead to cheaper or more stable fuel prices at the pump.

 

General factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating and summer cooling demand can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 2nd May

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Prices are slightly lower this week, mainly influenced by concerns about an economic slowdown, ongoing uncertainty around US tariffs, and OPEC+ production hikes.

Global economic slowdown

Oil prices have dipped slightly since last Friday amid global economic concerns, particularly signs of a slowdown in China and the US. Weakening industrial activity and sluggish manufacturing output in China have dampened energy demand. Meanwhile, a record-high trade deficit and a sharp decline in consumer confidence have raised fears of reduced economic activity in the United States.

These changes often indicate lower future demand for oil, contributing to the recent price reductions.

US sanctions

US sanctions are still impacting oil prices. However, Beijing is reportedly “evaluating” an offer from the US to engage in trade negotiations. Complicating any talks was a threat from Trump to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil – China is their biggest buyer.

This situation can influence fuel prices at the pump because trade tensions (or progress) between the US and China directly affect global economic activity, affecting oil demand and prices.

OPEC+ production output may fuel oversupply fears

A new Bloomberg survey published on Thursday showed that April output dropped by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) – instead of the planned hikes. There are expectations that OPEC+ will increase production during June, with big player Saudi Arabia indicating that they are no longer prepared to prop up oil prices with further supply cuts. Eight OPEC+ countries will meet on May 5 to decide on a June output plan. OPEC+ countries are expected to see rising domestic oil consumption in May because of increased cooling demand.

This situation influences fuel prices at the pumps because expectations of increased oil production can lead to oversupply fears, which generally cause crude oil prices to fall. Fuel prices are closely linked to the global price of crude oil.

BP shares drop

The recent fall in oil prices has disrupted BP’s financial planning, contributing to a sharp decline in cash flow and profits, a $4 billion increase in net debt, and shares falling nearly 4%. Market analysts described the results as weak but not surprising.

Lower oil prices and weak corporate earnings from major oil producers like BP can reduce consumers’ fuel costs. However, if oil companies cut production or investment in response to financial strain, this could tighten supply in the longer term and push prices back up.

The pricing outlook for next week

We anticipate the market will trade stably going into next week.

 

General factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating and summer cooling demand can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 25th April

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Oil prices dropped earlier this month after the tariffs sparked concern about global demand. Last week saw a week-on-week rise of 7%, driven by hopes of a trade deal between the United States and the European Union, as well as new U.S. sanctions aimed at curbing Iranian oil exports. 

Prices fell on Friday, resulting in them being down overall this week. Concerns about oversupply from OPEC+ and speculation about ongoing trade and tariffs are influencing prices. On Sunday, President Trump said there would be some exceptions to the tariffs, which eased concerns slightly. Prices rose in anticipation of tariff negotiations between China and the US, but later fell after a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated that there had been no such development.

Russia has continued with drone attacks on Ukraine, with a refinery in the Komsomolsk-on-Amur region catching fire from a retaliation attack. The US president has claimed that a deal to end the war was close. Meanwhile, a halt to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the easing of sanctions could allow more Russian oil to flow to global markets. Russia, a member of the OPEC+ group that includes the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is one of the world’s largest oil producers, alongside the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran are also impacting oil prices. As well as the uncertainty due to renewed nuclear negoations, increased sanctions may limit Iran’s ability to sell oil globally, restricting supply and pushing prices up. 

Meanwhile, the pound has continued to make gains against the dollar, and favourable trade outlooks between the U.S. and the UK are underway.

The pricing outlook for next week

While these global developments continue to influence crude oil prices, their impact is beginning to be felt at the pump in fuel prices. Despite recent volatility in oil markets, retail fuel prices have remained relatively stable, supported by existing reserves and the strengthening pound.

However, if tensions in the Middle East escalate, new tariff developments emerge, or OPEC+ adjusts its output, consumers may see fuel prices rise in the coming weeks. The strength of the pound, which helps offset dollar-denominated oil price increases, may only offer short-term relief if global supply concerns worsen.

 

Other factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.