Fuel Price Pulse – 25th April

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We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Oil prices dropped earlier this month after the tariffs sparked concern about global demand. Last week saw a week-on-week rise of 7%, driven by hopes of a trade deal between the United States and the European Union, as well as new U.S. sanctions aimed at curbing Iranian oil exports. 

Prices fell on Friday, resulting in them being down overall this week. Concerns about oversupply from OPEC+ and speculation about ongoing trade and tariffs are influencing prices. On Sunday, President Trump said there would be some exceptions to the tariffs, which eased concerns slightly. Prices rose in anticipation of tariff negotiations between China and the US, but later fell after a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated that there had been no such development.

Russia has continued with drone attacks on Ukraine, with a refinery in the Komsomolsk-on-Amur region catching fire from a retaliation attack. The US president has claimed that a deal to end the war was close. Meanwhile, a halt to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the easing of sanctions could allow more Russian oil to flow to global markets. Russia, a member of the OPEC+ group that includes the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is one of the world’s largest oil producers, alongside the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran are also impacting oil prices. As well as the uncertainty due to renewed nuclear negoations, increased sanctions may limit Iran’s ability to sell oil globally, restricting supply and pushing prices up. 

Meanwhile, the pound has continued to make gains against the dollar, and favourable trade outlooks between the U.S. and the UK are underway.

The pricing outlook for next week

While these global developments continue to influence crude oil prices, their impact is beginning to be felt at the pump in fuel prices. Despite recent volatility in oil markets, retail fuel prices have remained relatively stable, supported by existing reserves and the strengthening pound.

However, if tensions in the Middle East escalate, new tariff developments emerge, or OPEC+ adjusts its output, consumers may see fuel prices rise in the coming weeks. The strength of the pound, which helps offset dollar-denominated oil price increases, may only offer short-term relief if global supply concerns worsen.

 

Other factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 10th April

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Oil prices fell dramatically this week due to ongoing fears that Donald Trump’s latest tariffs could spark a global recession. There is speculation that this could mean cheaper fuel for drivers, with commentary from the RAC saying that fuel prices could fall to their lowest level since 2021.

US Tariffs

The sharp drop in oil is mainly due to concerns that the tariffs will slow down the global economy, reducing demand for fuel. On Wednesday, oil prices hit a new four-year low after China struck back at the U.S. by announcing much higher tariffs on American goods. China’s finance ministry hit back saying it would raise tariffs from 34% to 84% in response to President Trump’s decision to enforce a 104% tariff on Chinese imports earlier this week.

Supply and demand

Supply and demand issues also impacted pricing this week. In response to the tariff situation, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, lowered its prices for Asian buyers to stay competitive. On Tuesday, the 2,700-mile Keystone oil pipeline ruptured. Canadian regulators say the pipeline transports more than 26 million gallons per day on average, so any downtime halts the flow of millions of gallons of crude oil from Canada to refineries in the U.S. – potentially leading to higher prices.

The pricing outlook for next week

All of these factors are pushing oil prices downwards. When crude oil prices fall, it usually leads to lower prices at the pump – although changes may not be immediate. With global markets shaken and uncertainty around the economic impact of the US tariffs, experts say price swings could continue in the weeks ahead.

 

Other factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 4th April

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Oil prices have fallen in comparison to last week. The decline is linked to concerns about U.S. tariffs, economic slowdown, and a surprising production hike from OPEC+​

 

US Tariffs 

On Wednesday, President Trump announced significant import tariffs on countries across the world,  including China (34%), India (26%), Japan (24%), the EU (20%), and the UK (10%). Oil prices plunged 8% on Friday as China hit back, imposing an additional 34% on all US goods. As other nations consider whether to retaliate, the announcement of the highest tariffs in more than a century caused a sharp drop in global financial markets. The dollar is also failing, raising concerns about a potential US recession. 

 

Although oil was exempted from the tariffs, it is anticipated that they will increase inflation, slow economic growth and create a “trade war”. This will hurt economic growth which will, in turn, slow demand for oil. 

 

OPEC production hikes 

Key members of the OPEC group (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) agreed to increase their joint oil output by 411,000 barrels per day in May – well above the estimated increase of 140,000 barrels. Trump’s tariff threats on key OPEC+ members (Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) could curb their supplies, countering planned output increases.

 

Transport issues could impact supply 

Rhine water levels have dropped to a 12-month low – a key route for moving crude oil to inland refineries and storage facilities. When water levels drop, barges must reduce cargo loads or halt operations altogether, leading to supply bottlenecks and potential price increases. This can also force a shift to alternative transport methods, such as rail or trucks, which are less efficient and more expensive.

 

Other factors that influence oil and fuel pricing:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 28th March

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We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Early this week, oil prices rose due to growing concerns over possible U.S. tariffs on Venezuela and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories. Both of these factors could influence supply, pushing prices up. Prices continued to rise on Friday, fueled by fears that U.S. trade tariffs could trigger a global recession. This is the third consecutive week of oil price increases.

US sanctions and inventories

Despite concerns over a potential recession, oil demand remains stable. US inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels in the week to March 21, exceeding expectations and signalling strong demand.

On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order authorising a blanket 25% tariff on imports from any country purchasing Venezuelan crude oil and liquid fuels. This led to immediate reactions in the market, with China – Venezuela’s largest buyer – halting oil purchases and India’s Reliance Industries – operator of the world’s biggest refining complex – also planning to stop Venezuelan oil imports.

Analysts predict tighter supply in the second quarter if Venezuelan and Iranian exports decline.

OPEC

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is set to gradually increase production in April, with further rises expected in May.

Geopolitics

Geopolitical factors are also adding volatility. Sanctions are driving prices higher, but ongoing discussions between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine regarding hostilities and uncertainty about ceasefires in the Black Sea are creating counterpressure and market instability. Additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar has made crude more expensive for international buyers this week.

 

Supply, demand and other factors:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 21st March

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Fuel prices have remained relatively stable, with just a slight reduction compared to last week’s price per litre. With speculation from the RAC suggesting that the wholesale cost of oil will reduce the pump price, we explore the factors influencing prices this week.

 

Geopolitical and economic uncertainty

US policies – including reciprocal tarrifs between trading partners Canada, Mexico and China – have increased uncertainty for businesses, consumers and investors, prompting concerns of a recession. Geopolitical tensions also drive volatility, with Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries raising supply concerns. In the Middle East, Houthis threatened Red Sea attacks over Gaza aid.

U.S. inflation fell in February, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts. These cuts could weaken the dollar and make oil cheaper for international buyers, potentially supporting demand. Markets remain volatile as traders await key tariff decisions and geopolitical developments.

 

Supply and demand

European diesel supply is tightening, but demand remains strong. Despite low inventories in the U.S. and Europe, reduced Russian exports, and strong demand, refining margins have dropped below seasonal averages. This disconnect is likely due to rising trade tensions, particularly U.S. tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty, including a potential Ukraine ceasefire.

 

Tightening of oil supplies

Prices rose slightly today (Friday) after the U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions on Iran, including those on China-based Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd, which purchases Iranian oil. Because of tighter sanctions, analysts expect a 1 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction in Iranian crude oil exports.

In early March, OPEC+ confirmed that eight members would increase output by 138,000 bpd from April. However, this week, OPEC+ issued a new schedule requiring seven member nations to cut production to compensate for past overproduction. These compensatory cuts will outweigh the planned output increases, tightening supplies and potentially pushing prices up.

Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions, including U.S. strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen and Israeli operations in Gaza, have raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. In addition to impacting supply, ongoing Red Sea disruptions have driven up shipping costs and increased transit times for fuel shipments from Asia and the Middle East to Europe. This could result in price increases.

 

Supply, demand and other factors:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 14th March

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Fuel prices this week:

Fuel prices have dropped slightly this week, and there is speculation that the price at the pump is set to fall further after hitting a sixth-month high in January and February. Several key factors have influenced this change, from global politics to economic trends.

 

Oil prices and market confidence

Oil orices rose at the start of the week, but later fell due to concerns about tariffs and a possible recession. When investors fear economic instability, they often sell off oil-related assets, which lowers crude oil prices. Since crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, this price drop helps bring down fuel costs at the pump.

Geopolitical tensions affecting supply

Oil prices remain unstable due to ongoing global conflicts. This week, Ukraine targeted Russian refineries and pipelines. This has caused concern that Russia may struggle to export oil. Meanwhile, tensions are ongoing in the Middle East. The Houthi rebels have threatened attacks in the Red Sea in response to the Israel-Gaza situation. The Red Sea is a major shipping route for oil, so any disruptions here could slow deliveries. Both of these factors may cause supply to tighten, which could cause prices to rise.

U.S. trade policies = Economic uncertainty

The U.S. government’s trade policies, including potential new tariffs, are adding uncertainty to global markets. Uncertainty can cause businesses to slow production or reduce investments, leading to oil price fluctuations. If tariffs make it more expensive to transport goods, fuel demand could drop, helping keep prices lower.

OPEC+

OPEC+, a group of major oil-producing countries, carefully manages oil supply to stabilise prices. However, reports suggest that OPEC+ production is increasing. If more oil enters the market, this could lower prices because a larger supply often means cheaper fuel for consumers.

Seasonal Demand and European Diesel Supply

Fuel demand typically rises in the spring due to increased travel. However, European diesel supply is tightening because of reduced imports and upcoming refinery maintenance. If diesel becomes scarcer, prices at the pump could increase, especially for truckers and industries relying on diesel-powered vehicles.

U.S. Inflation and Interest Rates

Inflation in the U.S. fell in February, which could lead to larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. If interest rates drop, borrowing money becomes cheaper, which can boost economic activity and increase fuel demand. At the same time, a weaker U.S. dollar makes oil cheaper for other countries, which could increase global demand and raise prices.

 

Supply, demand and other factors:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Next Week’s Fuel Prices 

Despite all these factors, the market is expected to trade relatively stably next week unless a major event disrupts supply or demand. Monitoring oil production, trade policies, and global conflicts will be key to understanding where fuel prices will go from here.

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 21st February

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

 

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices determine the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. They are influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil supply, demand, and pricing, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

Factors influencing fuel prices this week

While fuel pricing has remained relatively stable, oil prices have risen slightly this week as supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions continue to influence supply/demand and pricing. 

Global supply disruptions and demand  

A series of supply interruptions have resulted in oil price fluctuations, which, in turn, impact fuel prices at the pumps. A Ukrainian drone attack on a significant oil pipeline pumping station has reduced oil flows by 30-40% – a drop of up to 380,000 barrels per day. Stormy weather at Russia’s Black Sea port caused further supply disruptions, temporarily stopping oil shipping. In the U.S., a cold snap in North Dakota has caused a production decline of 150,000 barrels per day. This has tightened U.S. supply and impacted the wider market. 

While supply remains volatile, upward trends in demand also influence global pricing. Cold weather in the U.S. has increased fuel consumption, and industrial activity in China is increasing. These factors have contributed to a global demand increase of 1.4 million barrels daily.

Geopolitical tensions 

Negotiations to end the Ukraine war added uncertainty to the market after U.S. and Russian officials met to discuss a possible resolution. If a peace deal is reached, it could lead to the lifting of some restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil. This could increase global supply and stabilise prices. However, Ukraine’s response suggests an immediate resolution is unlikely, bringing further uncertainty to oil supply and pricing. 

Despite this, and Trump’s promise to increase supply and lower fuel prices in the U.S., refinery maintenance season in the U.S. could reduce crude oil processing in the short term, potentially impacting fuel availability and prices. 

OPEC+ influence 

There is still uncertainty about whether OPEC+ will implement planned supply increases in April or delay them further. OPEC controls a large share of the world’s oil supply. Members decide how much oil to produce, which affects global prices.

Supply, demand and other factors:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so dollar fluctuations impact oil prices. A stronger dollar and fluctuations in exchange rates make oil more expensive in other countries, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

Next Week’s Fuel Prices 

With supply disruptions tightening global oil availability and rising demand, fuel prices could remain slightly elevated in the short term. However, geopolitical negotiations and upcoming OPEC+ decisions add uncertainty that could shift the balance either way. 

Please speak to our team for more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money on fuel management. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting.

Fuel Price Pulse – 14th February

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

 

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices govern the price you pay for petrol and diesel at the pumps. Wholesale prices are influenced by a range of factors, including supply, demand, and pricing for crude oil, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

What’s impacting fuel prices this week?

Fuel prices are expected to rise, with the market currently trading slightly higher than this time last week.

US economy and trade tarrifs:

Oil prices are climbing after President Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs on countries that tax US imports until April. This decision allays fears of an imminent trade war, boosting market confidence and demand expectations, which, in turn, pushes prices higher.

The US Federal Reserve has signaled that interest rates will not drop quickly unless economic data weakens. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, which can slow down economic growth and reduce oil demand.

Oil production – supply/demand:

US oil production remains high. As the world’s largest oil producer, when the U.S. produces more oil, global supply rises. Generally, if the oil supply increases, prices at the pump respond by going down. However, at the same time, OPEC continues to limit its supply. Even though OPEC has more spare production capacity than it has had in over a decade, it is choosing to keep supply restricted, which increases oil prices.

 

Geo-politics:

A call between President Trump and President Putin may lead to peace talks in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but there is concern that the US might offer concessions to Russia. Any shift in US-Russia relations could affect energy markets, particularly regarding sanctions on Russian oil and gas.
The US has also ramped up pressure on Iran, a key OPEC oil producer, aiming to block its crude exports entirely. If Iran’s oil supply is reduced, global supply tightens, increasing oil and fuel prices.

Supply, demand and other factors:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices.
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so fluctuations in the dollar’s value impact oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for other currencies, potentially lowering demand.
  • Seasonal factors like heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. This is expected to increase demand over the coming week.

 

Next Week’s Fuel Prices

With these developments, we anticipate that the market will continue to trade higher into next week, keeping fuel prices on an upward trajectory.

 

For more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money when it comes to fuel management, please speak to our team. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting purposes. 

 

 

Fuel Price Pulse – 7th February

Written by

We share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

 

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices govern the price you pay for petrol and diesel at the pumps. Wholesale prices are influenced by a range of factors, including supply, demand, and pricing for crude oil, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Factors influencing fuel pricing this week

 

Russian supplies

Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks. This week, the Lukoil refinery, the biggest refinery in southern Russia, was attacked by Ukrainian drones. Crude oil deliveries to the refinery have been halted, with supplies being sent from inventory.

Russia’s oil industry is under strain, with overall refining volumes dropping to their lowest levels since 2012. Geopolitical instability, especially in major oil-producing nations like Russia, tends to create uncertainty in global energy markets. This often drives oil prices higher as traders factor in potential future disruptions.

 

US politics and sanctions 

There’s plenty of uncertainty in global crude flows – especially with fresh U.S. sanctions putting Russian and Iranian exports at risk. Sanctions could reduce crude oil exports from major suppliers, tightening global supply. When supply shrinks, prices tend to rise.

 

Prices fell on Thursday after Trump repeated his plan to raise U.S. oil production, especially after the country reported a much bigger than anticipated jump in crude inventories. If the U.S. ramps up oil output – especially when inventories are high – it could lead to an oversupply in the market. More supply with steady or weakening demand typically pushes prices down. 

 

OPEC 

With Russian and Iranian exports at risk, buyers in Asia are turning to OPEC producers. Higher demand for OPEC oil could push prices up, especially if production capacity is already tight.


Supply, demand and other factors:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so fluctuations in the dollar’s value impact oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for other currencies, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

 

Next Week’s Fuel Prices 

Looking ahead, we expect the market to remain stable into next week. One big development to watch is India ramping up its refining game—they’re adding 1 million barrels per day of refining distillation capacity, second only to China. This could shake up global oil flows in the long run.

 

For more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money when it comes to fuel management, please speak to our team. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting purposes. 

 

 

Fuel Price Pulse – 31st January

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aWe share our insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

 

What determines fuel prices?

Wholesale fuel prices govern the price you pay for petrol and diesel at the pumps. Wholesale prices are influenced by a range of factors, including supply, demand, and pricing for crude oil, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

 

Factors influencing fuel pricing this week

 

Trump and US policy: 

President Donald Trump has said he will follow through with his threat to hit imports from Canada and Mexico with 25% border taxes, known as tariffs, on 1 February. He also stated that a decision about whether this would include oil from those countries had not yet been made. 

Canada and Mexico are the largest crude oil suppliers to the U.S., so this decision is likely to impact supply, demand and pricing. Any U.S. sanctions on Iran or Venezuela could also tighten supply, though OPEC (see below) has spare capacity to compensate for potential losses.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 2.86 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude stockpiles, signalling weaker demand and pushing prices down.

OPEC:

Last week, President Trump urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to lower oil prices. In response, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members discussed their production plans ahead of a key meeting on February 3rd. While some reports suggest OPEC will stick to its plan to increase production in April, others say it’s still uncertain. Either way, Trump’s push to boost U.S. oil production is likely to be high on the agenda. 

OPEC influences oil prices because it controls a large share of the world’s oil supply. Its members meet regularly to decide how much oil to produce, which affects global prices.

 

The Global Economy:

China’s manufacturing slowed in January, raising concerns that the country – the world’s largest crude oil importer – will use less oil. On top of that, new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil could disrupt Chinese refineries. Some independent refineries in China have already shut down for indefinite maintenance periods.

 

Supply, demand and other factors:

  • While geopolitical tensions can cause market uncertainty – especially in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and Russia – global economic performance can slow demand and impact prices. 
  • Oil is traded in U.S. dollars, so fluctuations in the dollar’s value impact oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for other currencies, potentially lowering demand. 
  • Seasonal factors like winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere can also increase oil consumption and pricing. 

 

Next Week’s Fuel Prices 

Fuel prices next week will continue to be influenced by uncertainty around President Trump’s policies. Sluggish economic recovery in China could keep demand subdued, while geopolitical risks continue to add uncertainty.

 

For more information on fuel card pricing, including advice on how to save time and money when it comes to fuel management, please speak to our team. 

 

The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting purposes.