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News hit last week that fuel prices were at their lowest since October 2021. Over the last week, a US interest rate cut, Middle East tensions, declining global stockpiles and weak demand from China have all influenced the cost of crude oil and fuel pump prices.
Robin, Revenue and Retention Manager at The Fuel Store, shares his insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including his predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.
What determines fuel prices?
The price you pay for petrol and diesel at the pumps is governed by wholesale fuel prices. Wholesale prices are influenced by a range of factors, including supply, demand and pricing for crude oil, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.
Factors impacting fuel prices this week
The market has settled stable in comparison to last week.
On Monday, oil prices dipped slightly as traders reacted to Friday’s late losses. U.S. traders had sold off covering positions after news that refineries had sustained no serious damage from Storm Francine. However, a statement from the U.S. offshore energy regulator on Sunday reported that nearly a fifth of crude oil production output in U.S. Gulf of Mexico federal waters remained offline. While refineries were reported undamaged, these production outages are keeping supply tight, supporting prices.
On Tuesday morning, Oil prices remained relatively unchanged. However, by the afternoon, prices began to rise in anticipation of a possible 0.5% cut in US interest rates. As expected, Oil prices posted modest gains of more than 1% on Thursday, following a confirmed cut in U.S. interest rates.
Crude inventories in the U.S., the world’s top producer, fell to a one-year low last week, government data showed on Wednesday. Exports are expected to rebound in the coming week following disruptions from Storm Francine.
Declining global stockpiles have helped offset some of the demand concerns arising from weak consumption in China. However, China’s slowing economy continues to limit oil’s gains. The latest Chinese refinery output data was weaker than expected, falling to a 22-month low of 13.91m bpd. The most recent new car sales data from China shows that sales of “new energy vehicles” were higher than sales of ICE vehicles for a second month. As electric vehicle sales surge, driven largely by China, the impact on oil consumption will likely become even more pronounced.
Traders are also following developments in the Middle East, after thousands of pagers and radio devices exploded in two separate incidents in Lebanon – injuring thousands of people and killing at least 37.
Next week’s fuel prices
We predict the market will be more stable going into next week. Businesses and drivers can reduce costs further by opting for a fuel card. In 2023, customers of The Fuel Store saved an average of 12 ppl off forecourt costs.
Ready to find out how a fuel card can save you money? Speak to our team or explore our range of fuel cards here.
The information provided in this post is for information only. It does not constitute financial advice. Pricing predictions are speculative and should not be relied upon for forecasting purposes.