Prices have risen this week, compared to the same time last week. Prices fluctuated throughout the week, with volatility driven, once again, by a combination of geopolitical events, economic concerns, and weather-related events.

With prices higher than last week, Robin, Customer Success Manager at The Fuel Store, shares his insights into the factors impacting fuel prices, including his predictions for fuel costs as we head into next week.

What determines fuel prices?

The price you pay for petrol and diesel at the pumps is governed by wholesale fuel prices. Wholesale prices are influenced by a range of factors, including supply, demand and pricing for crude oil, oil refinery production levels, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate, socio-economic and political factors that might impact production/demand, the margin (profit) taken by fuel retailers, and fuel duty and VAT charged by the Government.

Factors influencing fuel pricing this week.

Middle-East tensions cause prices to rise

The week began with a significant rise in oil prices. Escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed the price of a barrel above $80 for the first time since August. There is growing concern that the conflict may continue to escalate – not only putting Iran’s oil production at risk – but creating further disruptions to regional supply.

Historically, geopolitical crises in oil-producing regions, particularly in the Middle East, tend to push prices upward as markets anticipate supply disruptions or heightened risks in transportation routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

Prices fall due to concerns over the Chinese economy

Mid-week, prices experienced a pullback due to renewed concerns over the health of China’s economy, the world’s second-largest consumer of oil. Despite recent speculation about Beijing introducing a major economic stimulus package, the absence of any substantial spending commitments led to disappointment among traders.

China’s economy is a key driver of global oil demand, and any indication of slowing growth or weaker economic policy initiatives can quickly reverse market sentiment.

Hurricane Milton impacts demand

By Thursday, prices stabilised and edged higher. Hurricane Milton, the fifth-most-intense Atlantic hurricane on record, caused widespread disruption in Florida. Around 25% of the fuel stations in the state ran out of gasoline, creating a sudden spike in demand for crude oil which pushed prices higher. Speculation of a fall in demand across the state in the aftermath further fuelled volatility.

Weather-related supply chain interruptions often lead to short-term spikes in fuel prices, as seen in this case.

Next week’s fuel prices

Looking ahead, we predict that prices will continue to rise next week. This is due to ongoing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Despite no immediate military retaliation from Israel as some had expected, the threat of escalation remains. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has stated that the decision on a potential attack on Iran will rest with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and another member of the Security Cabinet, which leaves the market on edge. News breaking today (11th Oct) states that Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire. Traders often respond preemptively to such geopolitical risks, fearing potential supply disruptions that could arise if the conflict spreads or intensifies.

In summary, this week’s market movement highlights the sensitivity of oil prices to a variety of external factors, from geopolitical tensions and economic data to natural disasters. While prices have fluctuated, the general trend remains upward, driven by fears of escalating conflicts and supply chain disruptions. These factors, along with underlying concerns about global economic health, suggest that volatility will persist in the coming weeks.